碳阻迹
2020-01 20
View 252
UK’s final EUA sale volumes likely to be spread over 2020 -experts

Date:2020-01

View:20

An estimated 120-150 million EU carbon allowances that remain to be auctioned by the UK before it formally exits the bloc and its ETS at the end of 2020 are most likely to be spread evenly across 10 months of sales next year, experts predict. Source: Carbon Pulse Date: December 20, 2019

2020-01 10
View 199
JetBlue will offset emissions for domestic flights from July 2020

Date:2020-01

View:10

JetBlue announced this week that it will offset emissions from jet fuel for all domestic flights from July 2020. It is the first major US airline to go carbon neutral on domestic flights. The airline also announced that it will use sustainable aviation fuel from mid-2020 on flights from San Francisco. The sustainable aviation fuel is already compatible with existing jet engine technology. JetBlue gave no indication of a plan for offsetting international flights. This is a positive step for the airline, who was ranked last by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) in a white paper from September 2019 titled, “U.S. domestic airline fuel-efficiency ranking 2017-2018.” In a press release, JetBlue explains: JetBlue will continue to partner with Carbonfund.org — a leading US based nonprofit carbon reduction and climate solutions organization. JetBlue’s new carbon offsetting partners now also include established experts in the space — EcoAct and South Pole. This expansion is expected to offset an additional 15-17 billion pounds (7 to 8 million metric tons) of emissions per year — the annual equivalent of removing more than 1.5 million passenger vehicles from the road. JetBlue will offer ways for the airline’s customers and communities to connect with the carbon offsetting projects JetBlue is engaging with. JetBlue will support carbon offset projects focused on forestry, landfill gas capture, and solar and wind. Tim Johnson, executive director of the Aviation Environment Federation, said to Electrek of JetBlue’s announcement: It’s good to see airlines increasingly recognizing the climate challenge and committing in various ways to net zero emissions by 2050. But these are currently the exceptions, and we need industry-wide targets set by governments. There’s an urgent need to set a long-term 2050 goal, but at present the UN only has a goal to keep international aviation emissions at 2020 levels. Environmental groups remain skeptical that carbon offsets alone are enough to mitigate aviation emissions, which rose by nearly a third between 2013 and 2018, and 70% faster than predicted. The International Air Transport Association predicts that 7.8 billion passengers will be flying by 2036, a near doubling of the 4 billion who flew in 2017. Beginning in 2020, British Airways is offsetting all emissions from its UK flights through verified carbon-reduction projects. Last year, EasyJet pledged to offset carbon emissions from the fuel used on all of its flights, making it the first major airline to pledge carbon neutrality across its network. KLM is aiming to reduce its carbon emissions 15% over 2005 levels by 2030, and SAS (Scandinavian Airlines) wants to reduce emissions by 25% over 2005 levels by 2030. These airlines, along with JetBlue, collectively flew roughly 237 million passengers last year. Source:electrek Date: Jan 10th 2020

2020-01 09
View 136
Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right

Date:2020-01

View:09

An animation of a GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) climate model simulation made for the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, showing five-year averaged surface air temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius from 1880 to 2100. The temperature anomaly is a measure of how much warmer or colder it is at a particular place and time than the long-term mean temperature, defined as the average temperature over the 30-year base period from 1951 to 1980. Blue areas represent cool areas and yellow and red areas represent warmer areas. The number in the upper right corner represents the global mean anomaly. Credit: NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies There’s an old saying that “the proof is in the pudding,” meaning that you can only truly gauge the quality of something once it’s been put to a test. Such is the case with climate models: mathematical computer simulations of the various factors that interact to affect Earth’s climate, such as our atmosphere, ocean, ice, land surface and the Sun. For decades, people have legitimately wondered how well climate models perform in predicting future climate conditions. Based on solid physics and the best understanding of the Earth system available, they skillfully reproduce observed data. Nevertheless, they have a wide response to increasing carbon dioxide levels, and many uncertainties remain in the details. The hallmark of good science, however, is the ability to make testable predictions, and climate models have been making predictions since the 1970s. How reliable have they been? Now a new evaluation of global climate models used to project Earth’s future global average surface temperatures over the past half-century answers that question: most of the models have been quite accurate. forecast evaluation for models run in 2004 Models that were used in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report can be evaluated by comparing their approximately 20-year predictions with what actually happened. In this figure, the multi-model ensemble and the average of all the models are plotted alongside the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature Index (GISTEMP). Climate drivers were known for the ‘hindcast’ period (before 2000) and forecast for the period beyond. The temperatures are plotted with respect to a 1980-1999 baseline. Credit: Gavin Schmidt In a study accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, a research team led by Zeke Hausfather of the University of California, Berkeley, conducted a systematic evaluation of the performance of past climate models. The team compared 17 increasingly sophisticated model projections of global average temperature developed between 1970 and 2007, including some originally developed by NASA, with actual changes in global temperature observed through the end of 2017. The observational temperature data came from multiple sources, including NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) time series, an estimate of global surface temperature change. The results: 10 of the model projections closely matched observations. Moreover, after accounting for differences between modeled and actual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other factors that drive climate, the number increased to 14. The authors found no evidence that the climate models evaluated either systematically overestimated or underestimated warming over the period of their projections. “The results of this study of past climate models bolster scientists’ confidence that both they as well as today’s more advanced climate models are skillfully projecting global warming,” said study co-author Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York. “This research could help resolve public confusion around the performance of past climate modeling efforts.” Scientists use climate models to better understand how Earth’s climate changed in the past, how it is changing now and to predict future climate trends. Global temperature trends are among the most significant predictions, since global warming has widespread effects, is tied directly to international target agreements for mitigating future climate warming, and have the longest, most accurate observational records. Other climate variables are forecast in the newer, more complex models, and those predictions too will need to be assessed. To successfully match new observational data, climate model projections have to encapsulate the physics of the climate and also make accurate predictions about future carbon dioxide emission levels and other factors that affect climate, such as solar variability, volcanoes, other human-produced and natural emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This study’s accounting for differences between the projected and actual emissions and other factors allowed a more focused evaluation of the models’ representation of Earth’s climate system. Schmidt says climate models have come a long way from the simple energy balance and general circulation models of the 1960s and early ‘70s to today’s increasingly high-resolution and comprehensive general circulation models. “The fact that many of the older climate models we reviewed accurately projected subsequent global temperatures is particularly impressive given the limited observational evidence of warming that scientists had in the 1970s, when Earth had been cooling for a few decades,” he said. The authors say that while the relative simplicity of the models analyzed makes their climate projections functionally obsolete, they can still be useful for verifying methods used to evaluate current state-of-the-art climate models, such as those to be used in the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, to be released in 2022. “As climate model projections have matured, more signals have emerged from the noise of natural variability that allow for retrospective evaluation of other aspects of climate models — for instance, in Arctic sea ice and ocean heat content,” Schmidt said. “But it’s the temperature trends that people still tend to focus on.” Other participating institutions included the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. For more information on GISS and GISTEMP, visit: https://www.giss.nasa.gov/ https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Source: NASA Global Climate Chang  Author: Alan Buis Date: January 9, 2020

2019-12 13
View 131
Global Climate Action Presents a Blueprint for a 1.5-Degree World

Date:2019-12

View:13

UN Climate Change News, 13 December 2019 - At the UN Climate Change Conference (COP25) in Madrid, Global Climate Action brought together leaders from across sectors and borders for a lively series of events,  which were given concrete definition with the publication of the Climate Action Pathways. Under the leadership of the High-Level Champions, the eight Climate Action Pathways outline the longer-term vision for a 1.5-degree climate-resilient world, setting out the transformational actions and milestones required under the thematic and cross-cutting areas of Global Climate Action’s Marrakech Partnership. Elsewhere, Global Climate Action’s programme of events peaked with its high-level event on Wednesday 11 December. COP25 President, Minister Carolina Schmidt, opened to a packed plenary, which included Ministers, CEOs, media and leaders from civil society. She then invited United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, to give opening remarks, who used the opportunity to launch his report on the 2019 Climate Action Summit. Afterwards, the Secretary-General engaged in a conversation with Italian astronaut, Luca Parmitano – live from the International Space Station – who painted a vivid picture of how climate change is affecting the earth. As the event drew to a close, Chile’s High-Level Climate Champion, Gonzalo Muñoz, spoke of the achievements of Global Climate Action and announced a renewed Climate Ambition Alliance, which now recognizes 73 countries committed to net zero emissions by 2050, as well as a further 1,214 actors (regions, cities, businesses, investors) who have pledged the same goal. Concluding remarks were provided by COP26 President-Designate, Claire Perry O’Neill, who commended Chile’s leadership in launching the Alliance and emphasized the UK’s determination to collaborate on this work in 2020. During the event, many countries offered encouraging statements of support for the work of Global Climate Action since 2015 and for the continuation of its work post-2020. But Global Climate Action’s nine-day schedule of events was far broader than just the high-level event. It kicked-off on 3 December with the unveiling of the Action Hub, which welcomed some 3,800 participants over the course of 65 events. The amphitheater-like auditorium embraced a full spectrum of formats, such as TED-style talks, film screenings, audience polling, musical performances, press conferences, panel discussions, gaming demos, award ceremonies and on-the-sofa dialogues. The topics discussed were many and varied, encompassing fashion, banking innovation, sports, education, youth, sustainable travel and food. A standout moment of the Global Climate Action programme was undoubtedly the prestigious UN Global Climate Action Awards. Fifteen game-changing initiatives from more than twenty countries were celebrated, showcasing some of the most practical, scalable and replicable examples of what people across the globe are doing to tackle climate change. The award-winning projects of 2019 range from an in-app mini-programme that’s helped plant 122 million trees, to a ‘climate positive’ burger that’s taking the fast food industry by storm. Other projects include a women-led project that generates clean energy from the ocean, and Québec’s international climate finance programme, which is uniquely funded by the province’s own carbon market. In addition to the events outlined above, Global Climate Action gave stage time to Climate Neutral Now, the Fashion Charter for Climate Action, and the thematic areas of the Marrakech Partnership. Overall, Global Climate Action at COP25 went beyond talk and future pledges: It highlighted what progress has already been accomplished via its annual report – the Yearbook of climate action 2019 – and also a mass upload of new data to the Global Climate Action portal. The platform now boasts over 17,000 actors representing nearly 25,000 actions and also houses landmark announcements that were made at the conference on a dedicated COP25 action page. Other ‘headline’ events from the Global Climate Action programme at COP25 include: Climate Action in the Travel and Tourism Sector. An event organized by the World Travel and Tourism Council in collaboration with Global Climate Action about the need to take climate action in the Travel and Tourism sector to enable its transformation to a sustainable industry, under the umbrella of WTTC’s ambition for the sector to be climate neutral by 2050. In collaboration with the Climate Neutral Now initiative of UN Climate Change, the event demonstrated that many companies of the sector are already showing leadership in reducing their climate impact. The organization itself last year signed up to the United Nations Climate Neutral Now initiative with a pledge to measure its greenhouse gas emissions, reduce what it can and offset the rest, while promoting the same climate-friendly regimen to its 150 members worldwide, and launched a Sustainability Action Plan, meant to help the industry deliver on its climate ambition. Young and Future Generations Day. Among the main topics discussed was how young people can lead climate action and accelerate implementation of the Paris Agreement. The day was filled with many activities including the Intergenerational Inquiry event to discuss raising ambition and empowering youth to implement the Paris Agreement. The youth thematic day wrapped up with screenings of inspiring, award-winning youth videos. Awards were given to young videographers for their winning entries in three categories: Cities and local action to combat climate change; Nature-based solutions for food and human health; and Balancing use of land for people and ecosystems.   Fashion Charter for Climate Action Communique: A group of 86 fashion companies issued a public call to political leaders around the world to partner with them to deliver effective and ambitious climate action, as part of an event celebrating one year of the Fashion Industry Charter for Climate Action. The Communique calls for a partnership with political leaders of countries with major fashion production and consumer markets to create enabling policy environments that will bring the industry in line with the goal of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.   ACE High-Level Event: Country representatives, Ministers and non-state actors, including youth, gathered at a high-level event on Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) and unanimously expressed strong support and called for raising ambition and mobilizing commitments. Children and youth spoke passionately, urging adults to do their part to ensure a safe future – see more information on the event.   Pressing record on Climate Action Data Workshop: A workshop of data experts concluded with the adoption of a collective statement by the climate data community. Focused breakout sessions at the COP25 data workshop resulted in draft plans for a framework for tracking individual and cooperative actions. The intention is that these plans will be evolved throughout 2020 and formally presented at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn next June, with a view to ensuring that the initial phase of this work is ready for delivery by COP26 in Glasgow at the end of next year. About Global Climate Action at COP25 All of the above events were webcast live during the conference and are available on-demand (and downloadable) from the UN Climate Change webcast page.  The full Action Hub programme is available online. The full list of Global Climate Action’s ‘Headline’ events is also available online. For the Global Climate Action Awards, see the list of winners here. For more information contact press(at)unfccc.in   Source: UNFCCC Date: 13 DEC, 2019

2019-12 10
View 104
reenland's Rapid Melt Will Mean More Flooding

Date:2019-12

View:10

The Greenland Ice Sheet is rapidly melting, having lost 3.8 trillion tons of ice between 1992 and 2018, a new study from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) finds. The study combined 26 independent satellite datasets to track global warming's effect on Greenland, one of the largest ice sheets on Earth, and the ice sheet melt's impact on rising sea levels. The findings, which forecast an approximate 3 to 5 inches (70 to 130 millimeters) of global sea level rise by 2100, are in alignment with previous worst-case projections if the average rate of Greenland's ice loss continues. Changes to the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are of considerable societal importance, as they directly impact global sea levels, which are a result of climate change. As glaciers and ice sheets melt, they add more water to the ocean. Increasing rates of global warming have accelerated Greenland's ice mass loss from 25 billion tons per year in the 1990s to a current average of 234 billion tons per year. This means that Greenland's ice is melting on average seven times faster today than it was at the beginning of the study period. The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise the sea level by 24 feet (7.4 meters). The paper, published Dec. 10 in Nature, is the result of an international collaboration between 89 polar scientists from 50 scientific institutions supported by NASA and ESA. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise, or IMBIE, used well-calibrated data from 13 NASA and ESA satellite missions to create the most accurate measurements of ice loss to date. The team found that half of the loss is tied to surface ice melting in warmer air. The rest of the loss is the result of factors such as warmer ocean temperatures, iceberg calving and the ice sheet shedding ice into the ocean more quickly. "There are climate projections that are based on models of varying levels of complexity and observations, but they have large uncertainties. Our study is purely an observational one that tests those uncertainties. Therefore, we have irrefutable evidence that we seem to be on track with one of the most pessimistic sea level rise scenarios," said Erik Ivins, second author and lead scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Greenland is home to the only permanent ice sheet outside Antarctica. The sheet covers three-fourths of Greenland's land mass. But in the last 26 years, Greenland's melting ice has added 0.4 inches (11 millimeters) to sea level rise. Its cumulative 3.8 trillion tons of melted ice is equivalent to adding the water from 120 million Olympic-size swimming pools to the ocean every year, for 26 years. "As a rule of thumb, for every centimeter rise in global sea level, another 6 million people are exposed to coastal flooding around the planet," said Andrew Shepherd, lead author and scientist from the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom. "On current trends, Greenland ice melting will cause 100 million people to be flooded each year by the end of the century, so 400 million in total due to sea level rise." In addition to storm surges and high tides that will increase flooding in many regions, sea level rise exacerbates events like hurricanes. Greenland's shrinking ice sheet also speeds up global warming. The vast expanse of snow and ice helps cool down Earth by reflecting the Sun's rays back into space. As the ice melts and retreats, the region absorbs more solar radiation, which warms the planet. The new study will contribute to the evaluation and evolution of sea level rise models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in evaluating risks to current and future populations. The results of the study currently appear consistent with the panel's worst-case projections for sea level rise in the next 80 years. "The full set of consequences of future melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet remain uncertain, but even a small increase in sea level can have devastating effects on ports and coastal zones, cause destructive erosion, wetland flooding, and aquifer and agricultural soil contamination with salt," said Ivins. This is the third IMBIE study on ice loss as a result of global warming. IMBIE's first report in 2012 measured both Greenland and Antarctica's shrinking ice sheets, finding that the combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland had increased over time and that the ice sheets were losing three times as much ice as they were in the early 1990s. Antarctica and Greenland continue to lose ice today, and that rate of loss has accelerated since the first IMBIE study. IMBIE is supported by the NASA Earth Science Division and the ESA Climate Change Initiative. To learn more about NASA missions studying climate change, visit: https://climate.nasa.gov To learn more about NASA's study of sea level rise, visit: https://sealevel.nasa.gov View the latest sea level data in Earth Now: https://go.nasa.gov/341j5aV Source: NASA Global Climate Change Date: December 10, 2019